India has recorded 26 million Covid-19 cases - second only to the US. It is the new epicentre of the global pandemic.
The second wave in recent weeks has overwhelmed the healthcare system, leaving hospitals struggling to cope and critical drugs and oxygen in short supply.
But infections now seem to be slowing down. On Monday, cases fell below 200,000 for the first time since 14 April.
So is the second wave coming to an end?
Experts believe that at a national level, the wave is waning.
The seven-day rolling average of new reported cases during the wave peaked at 392,000 and has been on a steady decline ever since for the past two weeks, according to Dr Rijo M John, a health economist.
But there's a catch.
Even if the second wave appears to be waning for India as a whole, it is by no means true for all states.
It appears to have crested in states such as Maharashtra, Delhi and Chhattisgarh, but is still rising in Tamil Nadu, for example, as in much of the north east; and the situation in Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal is unclear.
Does the virus's reproduction number offer any clues?
The effective reproduction number of the virus or the R0- a way of rating a disease's ability to spread - estimates the number of people infected by one already infected person.
An R0 (pronounced R-naught) below one suggests the number of cases is slowing down. India's R0 has fallen below one between 14 and 18 May.
"If this is a sustained trend and goes even lower in the subsequent weeks, then yes, we can expect to see a sharper fall in the number of cases," Dr Sinha said.
But the R0 for India "almost never went below one in the entire run-up to the second wave, so we need to be careful that this is not a fluke", he said.